NAIROBI A small miracle is in the making in Somalia. Amid the preoccupation with crises in Sudan, Iraq and Afghanistan, many have failed to notice that peace could finally be coming to one of the world's most notorious trouble spots.

Somalia descended into chaos and anarchy when a popular uprising expelled President Siad Barre on Jan. 27, 1991. Since then, warlords and faction leaders have fought relentlessly, much as warring city states did in medieval Europe, and Somalia has had no central or regional government. While the warlords got rich, Somalia's people paid a heavy price throughout the conflict, none more so than its children.

Every year, Somalia is among the lowest ranked of 163 countries in the Human Development Index compiled by the United Nations Development Program. It currently ranks at 161. One in four Somali children will die before the age of 5; fewer than 25 percent of Somalis have access to clean water; fewer than 20 percent of children are enrolled in primary school and of the few who complete it, only one in eight is a girl.

In this failed state it is left to agencies like Unicef to provide services in health, education, water and sanitation. But these basic services are delivered in unimaginable circumstances. Somalia is dealing with a chronic, complex emergency with limited humanitarian access and limited funding from an international community that turned its back after the horrors and defeat of its engagement from 1993 to 1995.

Now this may all be about to change. Somalia's 14th peace process since 1991 started in October 2002, and although skeptics predicted the collapse of the reconciliation process at every stage, resolution was reached on Oct. 10 this year. Abdullahi Yusuf was elected president of the Transitional Federal Government with a landslide two-thirds majority vote by the 275-member Parliament and there are plans for the new government, currently in Nairobi, to relocate to Somalia by mid-December.

Many obstacles lie ahead. Some warlords are still hostile toward the transitional government and some in the international community refuse to support Abdullahi Yusuf, either because of his military past or because the transitional government is predicted to fail. But abandoning the peace process and the newly elected government would be the worst disservice to the Somali people. Though the challenges are innumerable, four humanitarian imperatives must be addressed by the Somali people, the new government and the international community.

Humanitarian access is a vital a precondition. Although peace is at its door, Somalia has never been as dangerous for the aid community. Many of my UN colleagues have been killed in seemingly targeted actions since October 2003. Airplanes and landing strips used by humanitarian agencies are clearly under threat. The funds to provide adequate security must be found immediately if services and assistance to the new government are to be provided at all.

Combating the effects of drought is the first priority. From northern Somalia, drought has spread throughout the country, destroying livestock and livelihoods. Unless there are funds to tackle it, drought will undermine the new government before it has effectively begun to exercise its authority. The second issue is education, particularly for girls. Any Somali under the age of 30 is unlikely to have attended school in Somalia or attained any academic skills. You cannot have democracy without democrats and peace cannot be decreed without building a culture of peace. Reconstruction demands educated Somalis, so investment in education must be a priority.

The third issue is AIDS, which is in danger of being overlooked among Somalia's many urgent challenges. As Somalia has a relatively low rate of infection with the AIDS virus, the right kind of intervention would give Somalia a historic opportunity to be one of the few countries in sub-Saharan Africa to achieve early control of the virus before it runs amok. But if measures were postponed, Somalia would replicate the devastating outcomes seen elsewhere in eastern and southern Africa.

The fourth issue is protection of the rights of Somalia's most vulnerable groups: children and women, returning refugees and internally displaced persons. Their suffering has been enormous and their current situation is almost inhuman. As the international community supports the installation of the new government, it must never be forgotten that equity, alleviating poverty and protecting the most vulnerable must be central to everything we do. Nothing is more critical for Somalia than getting it right in these four substantive areas - starting with adequate funding. And without satisfactory security and safe humanitarian access, nothing can happen. Peace is knocking on Somalia's door. If we don't let it in this time, it may never knock again.

Source: International Herald Tribune

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